Mortgage Registrations Spike in July.. is it the start of a reversal?

Since the start of 2019, I was pretty enthusiastic about the real estate market in Dubai and had big plans to explore it, only to be disappointed as the months gone-by.

To recap from an earlier post, transactions volume kept decreasing and got way lower than their 2013-2014 averages, as you can see here (the ready units transactions were used as they reflect the state of real estate cash-flows better than off-plan sales):

The average monthly transactions in 2013-2014 was AED 4.4-5.0 Billion, while 2018-2019 averaged 1.94 Billion.

But last month..things seem to be changing!

Here's a detailed look at the monthly transnational volumes of ready units (based on Dubai Land Department data) since 2013:

As you can notice, 2019 has 2 spikes in transnational volume, one in April and the second was last month in July.

When we dig deeper in the data, we can see a huge spike in mortgage registration last month of AED 2.3 Billion (the all time high in mortgage transactions was in Dec 2014 with AED 1.5 Billion):

Additionally, mortgage applications in the UAE increased by 78 per cent over the year and inquiries rose by 59 per cent in the same period, a sign that end users are increasingly seeking long-term solutions for their housing needs, according to data from consultancy Mortgage Finder.

This seems promising. If we continue to see more of these spikes in the coming months, 2019 can finally be the market reversal year that we've been waiting for since 2016.

* All Data used are based on the Dubai Land Department ready monthly unit transactions.


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